Risk Pricing · 6 protocols

Risk, as a range you can compare

A yes/no market collapses risk into one number. Here each protocol carries an estimate band — where the market thinks the 90-day drawdown lands — so two exposures can be read against each other.

Window

90 days

Measured on the published index at close. Re-priced continuously.

Estimated drawdown band

central band0–10% scale

Aave v3

Lending

3.1–4.8%

tail 12%

−0.3

Morpho Blue

Lending

4.2–6.9%

tail 18%

+0.4

Uniswap v4

DEX

2.4–3.9%

tail 9%

−0.1

Ethena

Basis

5.8–9.4%

tail 27%

+1.2

Sky

CDP

3.6–5.2%

tail 14%

0.0

Lido

Staking

2.1–3.4%

tail 8%

−0.2

0%2.5%5%7.5%10%

Why a band

Two protocols can share a median and behave nothing alike. The band carries the spread the market actually holds, so a narrow estimate reads differently from a wide one.

Tail column

The probability the drawdown exceeds twice the band's upper bound. It is the column that separates a quiet protocol from a fragile one.

Comparing, not scoring

Nothing here ranks protocols. The page puts estimates side by side; the exposure decision stays with the reader.