Futarchy · conditional

Proposal 41 — move 15% of the treasury into a stable buffer

Two markets, one measure. If the proposal passes, does the measure clear its threshold? If it fails, does it clear anyway? The gap between them is the only number the DAO has to read.

If it passes
71%

chance 90-day revenue clears $1.2M

If it fails
22%

same measure, status quo

Conditional difference
+49 pts

The measure is materially more likely under the proposal. The DAO decides; the market only prices the consequence.

Measure over time — pass vs fail
PassFail
12 weeks ago8 weeks4 weekstoday
Measure

90-day protocol revenue above $1.2M, read from the published dashboard on the close date.

What it does not do

It does not decide for the DAO. It prices the outcome of a decision the DAO has already framed.

Resolution

Both legs resolve from the same dashboard reading. A proposal that fails still resolves the fail leg.